Questions and Predictions for ’24

2024 promises to be a tumultuous, if not disastrous, year. Media law has the usual packed calendar of cases and issues; the law and SCOTUS will be in the headlines with an agenda full of historic developments; there’s a presidential election which may really be the most important in our lifetimes; and there will be controversies and contests in the entertainment and sports worlds.

So rather than opine on any or all of those subjects, I thought I’d devote my January column to questions seeking predictions from you as to what will happen in this calendar year. The goal is not only to see how good a prognosticator you are, but to give you topics to think and talk about in the coming months.

• Will the Smartmatic v. Fox case settle? If so, for more, less or the same as the $787.5 million settlement Dominion received?
• How will SCOTUS decide the NetChoice cases?
• Will Congress finally pass the PRESS Act, protecting journalists from compelled disclosure of their sources?
• Will the NYT’s case against OpenAI settle? If not, which way will the judge’s first opinion, presumably on an early motion, lean?
• Will state or federal government enact legislation about AI?
• Now that he is in the public domain, will Mickey Mouse be omnipresent?

• Will Julian Assange be extradited?

• Where will SCOTUS draw the line in Murthy v. Missouri between legitimate contacts between government and tech companies and unlawful government pressure to censor content?
• After over 20 years, will SCOTUS take a media content case this year? One implicating Times v. Sullivan?
• Will Sec. 230 be amended?
• Will any of the Trump cases (other than the New York civil case) be decided or go to trial this year? If so, will he be found guilty in any?
• What will be the first issue in a Trump case SCOTUS will rule on? Will the weight of the SCOTUS decisions on Trump be for or against him?

• Will SCOTUS decide any abortion cases following up on Dobbs? Will it expand or restrict that ruling?
• Who will be elected President in November? By how many electoral college votes? And who will have the most popular votes?
• What will be the Republican ticket?
• Will any Democrat challenge Biden? Will he and Kamala Harris be the Democratic ticket?

• Will bombing still be taking place in the Israel-Hamas War?
• Will bombing still be taking place in the Russia-Ukraine War?
• Who will be Time’s Person of the Year, following Taylor Swift? Will Taylor and Travis Kelce be engaged?
• What movie will win the Oscar for Best Picture? For Best Actor? For Best Actress?

• Who will win the Super Bowl? The World Series? Wimbledon (men’s and women’s)?
• What country will win the most gold medals at the Paris Olympics?

• Will this column be written or assisted by ChatGPT during 2024?  

George Freeman is executive director of the Media Law Resource Center. All opinions expressed in this column are his and not those of MLRC. Responses are welcome at gfreeman@medialaw.org; they may be printed (with permission) in the following month’s LawLetter.